Sea level rise projections for the UK were updated in 2018 with the release of latest UK climate projections (UKCP18, Met Office, 2018). The UKCP18 projections for time mean sea level rise around the UK improve on the previous generation of climate projections (UKCP09) through improved understanding of the components of sea level rise (as demonstrated by a better agreement between models and observations) and the inclusion of ice sheet dynamics (Palmer et al., 2018).<\/p>
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The Environment Agency has used the UKCP18 marine projections to derive allowances for sea level rise out to 2125 for each of the six river basin districts in England, based on the 70th and 95th percentiles from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. These allowances can be found in ' Flood risk assessments: climate change allowances' and are intended to help ensure that new development adequately addresses the future risk of sea level rise. The marine projections are also used to inform sea level rise allowances in Flood and coastal risk projects, schemes and strategies: climate change allowances.<\/p>
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There is a lot of uncertainty around the absolute upper limit of sea level rise this century but the science can provide low likelihood high end scenarios, called H++ scenarios, which can be used in planning. Such a scenario was produced as part of UKCP09. No probability is assigned to these but a range from 0.93 to 1.9 m was considered to be physically plausible and cannot be ruled out (Met Office, 2009). This scenario was designed to encourage people to think about the limits to adaptation from sea level rise. While the marine projections from UKCP18 include ice sheet dynamics, there is still uncertainty around the full range of contributions from ice-sheet melt (in particular from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and the assessment of literature available at the time of writing UKCP18 indicated that the H++ scenarios from UKCP09 can still be used alongside the UKCP18 marine projections when considering plausible extreme scenarios.<\/p>
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The Environment Agency currently allows for a full range of future climate (up to and including the 95th percentile of the high emission RCP 8.5 case) in its sea level rise allowances, extended beyond the end of the century, as well as considering the H++ scenarios where appropriate. While these are conservative estimates, using all of the best-available data allows for the uncertainty inherent in climate modelling, the rapid rate of sea level rise we have seen in recent years and the plausible extreme scenarios currently outside of the probabilistic models. The Environment Agency regularly assesses the suitability of climate allowances as and when further information becomes available.<\/p>
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The Environment Agency considers the UKCP18 climate projections to be a reliable and up-to-date dataset to inform future planning for climate impacts, while recognising that uncertainties remain, particularly in future emissions and ice sheet dynamics. The Environment Agency accounts for climate change through the application of allowances when designing and constructing sea defences, using a range of climate change scenarios, including a 4°C rise in global temperatures by 2100. The Environment Agency provides guidance to flood risk management authorities, developers and local planning authorities on how to account for climate change in new flood and coastal risk management schemes and development. In July 2020, the Environment Agency updated this guidance to account for future sea level rise and on 20 July 2021 updated the guidance to account of future increases in peak river flows.<\/p>
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The Met Office will continue to assess the science of sea-level rise as part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, including examining the implications of the next IPCC assessment. It is not possible to comment on the content of the next IPCC assessment ahead of its publication. However, we do note that the model assessment exercise on which the IPCC assessment is based, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), used a range of emission scenarios including one with a similar level of radiative forcing to RCP8.5.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4062", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Goldsmith of Richmond Park"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2021-08-03", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2021-08-03T13:18:15.157Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "13"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Environment, Food and Rural Affairs"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Environment, Food and Rural Affairs"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2021-07-20", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Flood Control: Coastal Areas"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they regard the UK Climate Projections 18 (UKCP18) as an (1) up-to-date, and (2) reliable, tool for the future planning of sea defences; and what assessment they have made of the International Panel on Climate Change's revisions to its high emissions scenario which underpin UKCP18.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4297", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/1182899", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "Cabinet Office"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/1182899/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The draft Census (England and Wales) Order 2020 was laid in Parliament on 2 March 2020. It makes provision for the 2021 Census to ask a male/female sex question as in previous censuses. In addition, it is proposed the 2021 Census asks a voluntary question on gender identity for those 16 and over. This follows the Census (Return Particulars and Removal of Penalties) Act 2019 which enables census questions on sexual orientation and gender identity to be asked on a voluntary basis.<\/p>
There is no central guidance for police forces on the recording of sex or gender of persons in connection with a crime.<\/p>
The Personal Demographic Service (responsible for the NHS Number) record contains no clinical information. It holds administrative gender, which is not necessarily the same as clinical gender in some cases.<\/p>
<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4200", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord True"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord True"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2020-03-18", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2020-03-18T15:53:08.193Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "53"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Cabinet Office"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Cabinet Office"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2020-03-04", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Gender"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty's Government what is their policy on the recording of biological sex, legal sex and gender (1) in the 2021 census, (2) when a person\u2019s identity is recorded in connection with a crime, and (3) in a person\u2019s medical records.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/1879", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Lucas"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Lucas"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/773021", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/773021/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The costs of repatriating Monarch\u2019s ATOL protected customers will be met by the ATOL scheme. The costs of repatriating all other passengers will be met by Her Majesty\u2019s Government.<\/p>
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The Civil Aviation Authority has estimated the total repatriation costs to be approximately £60m, although some of these costs will be met by the ATOL scheme. Government is also seeking to recover costs through credit card companies and travel providers who would otherwise be liable. HM Treasury has not made its own assessment of the costs and do not produce forecasts of future tax payments by specific taxpayers.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/1091", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Bates"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Bates"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2017-11-01", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "groupedQuestionUIN" : [{"_value" : "HL2223"} , {"_value" : "HL2288"} ], "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2017-11-01T12:49:21.297Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "CaTreasury"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2017-10-18", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Monarch Airlines: Insolvency"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the amount of tax income and public revenue that will be foregone as a result of the failure of Monarch Airlines.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/3869", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Myners"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Myners"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/598915", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "Department for Transport"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/598915/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) is the Government\u2019s expert Arm\u2019s Length Body for the safety, security, consumer rights and economic regulation of civil aviation in the United Kingdom. The CAA participates in European Union (EU) regulatory systems in these areas. The Government is considering carefully all the potential implications arising from the UK\u2019s exit from the EU including the implications for the continued participation in European aviation safety and security regulatory processes. Until we leave, EU law still applies, and EU regulation in these areas will continue to apply in the UK, alongside national rules.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4210", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2016-10-14", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2016-10-14T10:06:52.52Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "27"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Transport"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Transport"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2016-10-11", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Aviation: Regulation"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government who will be responsible for the regulation of British civil aviation during and after Brexit.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/1813", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Trefgarne"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Trefgarne"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/418787", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "Home Office"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/418787/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
Following the publication of the report, I wrote to the British Red Cross to confirm that we are reviewing our process for dealing with applications for refugee family reunion in consultation with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Ministry of Justice.<\/p>
We are working closely with the British Red Cross and are considering the recommendations in detail.<\/p>
We are in the process of improving our guidance so that it is clear, consistent and accessible. We are also redesigning the application form to ensure that applicants better understand the process and what is required of them.<\/p>
Once the policy review is complete, we will provide a consolidated response to the report and place a copy in the Library of the House.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/1091", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Bates"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Bates"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-09-22", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-09-22T15:26:34.647Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "1"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Home Office"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Home Office"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2015-09-15", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Refugees: Legal Aid Scheme"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government whether they have responded, or plan to respond, to the British Red Cross report Not so Straightforward: the need for qualified legal aid support in refugee family reunion<\/i>; if so, whether they will place copies in the Library of the House; and whether they plan to simplify the current application form for entry to the United Kingdom for family reunion and to provide clear and consistent guidance about it.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/2018", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Hylton"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Hylton"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/100007", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "Foreign and Commonwealth Office"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/100007/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The Prime Minister, my right hon. Friend the Member for Witney (Mr Cameron), asked that the Egyptian government address the large number of people being held in detention during his meeting with President Al-Sisi at the UN General Assembly in New York on 23 September. John Casson, our Ambassador in Cairo, discussed the recent university protests with Ahmed el-Tayyeb, Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, on 14 October. The UK believes that freedom of expression, including the right to protest peacefully, is important in any democracy.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/3474", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Baroness Anelay of St Johns"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Baroness Anelay of St Johns"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2014-10-28", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2014-10-28T16:36:00.7673786Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "16"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Foreign and Commonwealth Office"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Foreign and Commonwealth Office"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2014-10-20", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Egypt"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what representations they have made to the government of Egypt about recent arrests of students, and the placing of private security companies, on university campuses there.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/2018", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Hylton"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Hylton"} ], "uin" : "HL2222"} ], "itemsPerPage" : 10, "page" : 0, "startIndex" : 1, "totalResults" : 6, "type" : ["http://purl.org/linked-data/api/vocab#ListEndpoint", "http://purl.org/linked-data/api/vocab#Page"]} }