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The Government\u2019s Long-term Economic Analysis of EU Exit (November 2018) provides a publicly available assessment of the possible long-term economic impacts of the UK's future relationship with the EU under different scenarios including a no deal scenario. The analysis summarises theory and evidence that openness to trade can increase productivity and long-term growth by exposing firms to competition, best practice, new technologies and through investment. This can contribute to higher wages, employment and households' living standards. A reduction in trade volumes between countries would be expected to lower productivity and long-term growth. In the Government\u2019s analysis a no deal scenario is estimated to lower long-run GDP by 9% to 6% compared with today\u2019s arrangements. In the analysis, this reflects the combined impact of trade frictions which reduce trade and affect firms' gross output, their productivity and households' purchasing power.<\/p>
The Bank of England\u2019s EU Withdrawal Scenarios and Monetary and Financial Stability report (published November 2018) also found that openness to trade affects productivity. The report\u2019s disorderly exit scenario found a \u2018large\u2019 reduction in productivity.<\/p>
These analyses are scenarios not forecasts. The scenarios illustrate what could happen under a range of key assumptions.<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/2616", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Henley"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Henley"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2019-06-05", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2019-06-05T16:23:08.763Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "201"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2019-05-22", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Business: Productivity"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of a disorderly Brexit on UK business productivity.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/1796", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Taylor of Warwick"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Taylor of Warwick"} ], "uin" : "HL15942"} ], "itemsPerPage" : 10, "page" : 0, "startIndex" : 1, "totalResults" : 1, "type" : ["http://purl.org/linked-data/api/vocab#ListEndpoint", "http://purl.org/linked-data/api/vocab#Page"]} }