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<p>The methodology is relatively straight forward and is contained within the publication
but quoted below for ease:</p>Estimates of projected costs<p>1. The estimate is based
on the latest available data (March 2022) from the 5% extract of DWP’s State Pension
administrative data, the Quarterly Statistical Enquiry (QSE).</p><p>2. The QSE is
used to estimate the volume of individuals in frozen rate countries and their State
Pension amounts.</p><p>3. The State Pension amount, for all current and future recipients,
is uprated (using the relevant indices) to the level they would have been if they
had never been frozen.</p><p>4. To estimate the costs for subsequent financial years
we make adjustments to the underlying caseload and associated costs by:</p><ul><li>applying
mortality rates to existing cases, based on age and gender;</li><li>adding forecasts
of future State Pension claims, which are based on historical trends and expected
changes in the population, and are adjusted for mortality; and</li><li>uprating State
Pension amounts using economic assumptions from the Office for Budget Responsibility
at Spring Budget 2023.</li></ul><p>5. The total cost for a given financial year is
the difference between the uprated State Pension amounts and the frozen State Pension
amounts.</p><p>As with all estimates of projected costs, there is a degree of uncertainty,
however where possible we have taken steps to try to minimise any significant measurement
error.</p><p>Links for the relevant data sources publicly available are:</p><p>- OBR
economic assumption for the relevant uprating indices <a href="https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Long_term_economic-determinants_March_2023_EFO-2.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK"
target="_blank">here</a></p><p>- Mortality projections <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/mortalityratesqxprincipalprojectionenglandandwales"
target="_blank">here</a></p><p>- Benefit expenditure and caseload tables (table State_Pension)
<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2023"
target="_blank">here</a></p><p>- Stat-Xplore SP outturn data from Nov 20 <a href="https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/jsf/tableView/tableView.xhtml"
target="_blank">here</a></p>
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