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<p>The assessment made in the Board of Trade’s ‘Embracing the Ocean’ paper that maritime
cargo volumes will treble by 2050 is drawn from the International Transport Forum
(ITF) Discussion Paper, No. 2020/05 ‘Changing Demand for Maritime Trade’ (P. Cariou).
That paper cites data from the ITF’s Transport Outlook (2019), which investigates
how socio-economic changes (population, GDP trade and transport policies) affect global
transport demand, including for maritime. <br></p><p>The Government uses UK-level
evidence rather than global-level evidence when analysing how UK shipping could contribute
to meeting the UK’s economy-wide net-zero target. DfT has produced forecasts of the
freight traffic at UK ports, which cover the period to 2050, which have been published
online. The UK port freight traffic forecasts were taken into account in the research
commissioned by DfT which informed the Net Zero Strategy pathways for UK domestic
and international shipping. Further details on the Net Zero Strategy pathways for
UK domestic and international shipping can be found on pages 342 and 343 of the Net
Zero strategy itself.</p>
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