To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, with reference to the recommendation on
page 8 of the NAO's report, The equipment plan 2019 to 2029, HC 111, 2019-29, published
on 27 February 2020, whether his Department has plans to recruit financial specialists
to increase the accuracy of his Department's cost forecasting.
<p>Within the Finance Function, the Cost Assurance and Analysis Service (CAAS) plays
a key role in the Ministry of Defence's (MOD) drive for Value For Money, leading on
cost management development across Defence. CAAS has ISO accreditation as a professional
cost management organisation with a team of over 300, including professional staff
in the areas of Cost Accountancy, Cost Engineering and Cost Estimating. In Financial
Year 2019-20 CAAS grew its Cost Estimating capability, with the arrival of an additional
40 graduate estimators. These staff have been recruited directly into CAAS on a bespoke
2 year Estimating Development Scheme.</p><p>In Financial Year 2020-21, CAAS plans
to develop a bespoke E-Academy to provide cost management training on a virtual basis
across a wider cohort of MOD finance and estimating staff. This will sit alongside
ongoing work to share and embed leading cost management practice across Defence.</p>
To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, with reference to the NAO's report of 27
February 2020, The equipment plan 2019 to 2029, HC 111, 2019-20, what the percentages
are of (a) USD and (b) EU foreign exchange rate losses of the £1.5 billion losses
referenced in that report.
<p>The assessment of affordability presented in the Ministry of Defence Equipment
Plan report of 27 February 2020 includes forecast costs for foreign currency using
the most likely exchange rates at the reporting date (April 2019). The NAO calculated
that these costs could be £1.5 billion more over 10-years based on less favourable
exchange rates in October 2019. All of this was due to US Dollar exchange rate changes.
Forecast exchange rates have since improved so these additional costs no longer represent
the most likely outcome, though the Department recognises the risk of additional costs
as exchange rates fluctuate in response to events.</p><p>The Department plans on the
basis of most likely costs using foreign exchange rate forecasts from professional
forecasting agencies and theoretical economic models. The department limits the risk
of additional costs by purchasing a proportion of demand up to three years in advance
at fixed prices using services provided by the Bank of England and HM Treasury. The
impact of short-term variations in foreign exchange rates are managed as part of the
routine financial management of the defence programme.</p>
To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, with reference to the NAO's report of 27
February 2020, The equipment plan 2019 to 2029, HC 111, 2019-20, which defence programmes
have been responsible for the foreign exchange rate losses of £1.5 billion referenced
in that report.
<p>The assessment of affordability presented in the Ministry of Defence Equipment
Plan report of 27 February 2020 includes forecast costs for foreign currency using
the most likely exchange rates at the reporting date (April 2019). The NAO calculated
that these costs could be £1.5 billion more over 10-years based on less favourable
exchange rates in October 2019. All of this was due to US Dollar exchange rate changes.
Forecast exchange rates have since improved so these additional costs no longer represent
the most likely outcome, though the Department recognises the risk of additional costs
as exchange rates fluctuate in response to events.</p><p>The Department plans on the
basis of most likely costs using foreign exchange rate forecasts from professional
forecasting agencies and theoretical economic models. The department limits the risk
of additional costs by purchasing a proportion of demand up to three years in advance
at fixed prices using services provided by the Bank of England and HM Treasury. The
impact of short-term variations in foreign exchange rates are managed as part of the
routine financial management of the defence programme.</p>