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<p>Twice a year, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produce detailed forecasts
for the coming five years, assessing the likely impact of policy decisions and expected
developments in the economy. A key component of this is the welfare annually managed
expenditure (AME) forecast, which estimates future government expenditure on social
security benefits and tax credits.</p><p>The current welfare freeze, which was announced
in 2015, runs from 2016/17 to 2019/20. As such, the cost of resuming the uprating
of frozen benefits from 2020/21 is already accounted for in the welfare forecast –
which combines DWP, HMRC and BEIS AME expenditure. The OBR does not routinely disaggregate
the cost of uprating within the forecast.</p>
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