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<p>The Government has fully assessed the impact of expansion in the South East on
the UK’s connectivity, as set out in Chapter 3 of the Updated Appraisal Report. The
Government is clear that a Northwest Runway at Heathrow will help to secure the UK’s
status as a global aviation hub, while regional airports will continue to develop
their point-to-point networks.</p><p> </p><p>This conclusion is supported by the analysis
which shows that passenger numbers and international flights at airports outside of
London are expected to increase by 80% and 71% respectively between 2016 and 2050
with a third runway at Heathrow. In addition, passengers from all across the UK are
expected to use the connections made available at an expanded Heathrow, with nearly
6 million additional trips from passengers outside of London and the South East being
made via the airport in 2040.</p><p> </p><p>Table 1 below shows the forecast number
of international passenger Air Transport Movements (ATM) from the Department’s 2017
UK aviation forecasts.<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> The Government recognises that all
three schemes for expansion in the South East are projected to result in regional
airports experiencing somewhat slower growth in international flights than they might
otherwise have seen. However, there is still expected to be strong growth at non-London
airports relative to today. Expansion will also improve the UK’s connectivity as a
whole with more frequent services to important destinations around the world, providing
benefits for passengers and freight-operators across the UK, supporting economic growth.</p><p>
</p><p>It is recognised that Table 1 does not reflect this hub benefit nor the considerably
greater scope that expansion brings for more domestic flights from regional airports
to Heathrow, which would provide passengers from across the country access to a vast
network of international destinations. In addition, the modelling does not take account
of the future commercial strategies which individual airports could employ to take
advantage of the opportunities from both greater connections and growing demand outside
London.</p><p> </p><p>Heathrow expansion has been supported by a range of UK airports,
including Liverpool John Lennon, Glasgow and Newquay.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Table
1: International passenger Air Transport Movements at modelled UK airports, thousands</strong></p><table><tbody><tr><td
rowspan="2"><p><strong>International passenger ATMs (000s)</strong></p></td><td colspan="3"><p><strong>No
expansion</strong></p></td><td colspan="3"><p><strong>LHR NWR</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2030</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2040</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2050</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2030</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2040</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2050</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Gatwick</p></td><td><p>266</p></td><td><p>277</p></td><td><p>280</p></td><td><p>255</p></td><td><p>273</p></td><td><p>279</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Heathrow</p></td><td><p>467</p></td><td><p>473</p></td><td><p>474</p></td><td><p>698</p></td><td><p>719</p></td><td><p>730</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>London
City</p></td><td><p>69</p></td><td><p>65</p></td><td><p>66</p></td><td><p>39</p></td><td><p>55</p></td><td><p>52</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Luton</p></td><td><p>100</p></td><td><p>95</p></td><td><p>88</p></td><td><p>99</p></td><td><p>97</p></td><td><p>89</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Stansted</p></td><td><p>166</p></td><td><p>182</p></td><td><p>183</p></td><td><p>121</p></td><td><p>163</p></td><td><p>182</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Birmingham</p></td><td><p>115</p></td><td><p>173</p></td><td><p>185</p></td><td><p>97</p></td><td><p>130</p></td><td><p>183</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Bristol</p></td><td><p>56</p></td><td><p>59</p></td><td><p>66</p></td><td><p>49</p></td><td><p>58</p></td><td><p>59</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>East
Midlands</p></td><td><p>52</p></td><td><p>71</p></td><td><p>90</p></td><td><p>53</p></td><td><p>67</p></td><td><p>84</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Edinburgh</p></td><td><p>52</p></td><td><p>63</p></td><td><p>71</p></td><td><p>51</p></td><td><p>63</p></td><td><p>72</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Glasgow</p></td><td><p>44</p></td><td><p>47</p></td><td><p>55</p></td><td><p>43</p></td><td><p>46</p></td><td><p>53</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Liverpool</p></td><td><p>23</p></td><td><p>25</p></td><td><p>43</p></td><td><p>25</p></td><td><p>27</p></td><td><p>42</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Manchester</p></td><td><p>179</p></td><td><p>214</p></td><td><p>272</p></td><td><p>159</p></td><td><p>207</p></td><td><p>245</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Newcastle</p></td><td><p>26</p></td><td><p>29</p></td><td><p>35</p></td><td><p>22</p></td><td><p>28</p></td><td><p>34</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Other
small UK airports</p></td><td><p>140</p></td><td><p>217</p></td><td><p>351</p></td><td><p>113</p></td><td><p>137</p></td><td><p>232</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Total</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>1755</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>1990</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2258</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>1825</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2069</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2338</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>
</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p> </p><p><sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup> An ATM represents
a single use of a runway – either a landing or a take-off – so the numbers of take-offs
and landings are each half of the total displayed.</p><p> </p>
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