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<p>The Department’s investment decisions are based on a fair and rigorous appraisal
system which assesses schemes in relation to their strategic fit, value for money,
deliverability, commercial and financial considerations. This appraisal is based on
forecasts of travel demand underpinned by official projections for population and
economic growth produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility.</p><p>While it is
too early for us to fully understand the impacts that Covid-19 and the UK’s departure
from the EU may have on travel demand, DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance requires
scheme promoters to undertake sensitivity tests to understand the resilience of investment
decisions to key input assumptions. For HS2, it is worth noting that the Full Business
Case for Phase One published in April looked at both high and low demand scenarios,
underpinned by population and economic growth forecasts. The analysis showed that
even in a scenario where demand is relatively low, there is still value in pressing
ahead with HS2. We have committed to publishing an uncertainty toolkit this year which
will provide advice on the analysis and presentation of uncertainty in transport appraisal
and modelling, including the use of scenarios.</p><p>The Department is also committed
to longer term strategic priorities, publishing three Priority Outcomes as part of
Spending Review 2020. One of these is to improve connectivity across the United Kingdom.
HS2 will play an important role in improving connectivity and will help to spread
jobs and opportunity across the country. This will be key in the country’s recovery
from the COVID pandemic.</p>
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