The government does not forecast either UK GDP or GDP per capita. The independent OBR in the March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) used the central ONS migration population projection. The ONS central migration projection is for net migration of 165,000 a year in 2018/19 and 2019/20. In the March 2015 EFO the OBR forecast that UK GDP per capita for those aged 16 and over will increase by 9.2% total between 2014 and 2019.<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
In order to inform policy making, the government reviews and notes the wider evidence on the economic and productivity impacts of immigration on an ongoing basis. This evidence base includes the wider academic literature, and a range of reports commissioned or produced by the government looking at specific impacts, for example those produced by the independent Migration Advisory Committee. In addition, policies that influence migration are assessed using the government's impact assessment process which models the economic impact of the policy change using assumptions based on a range of evidence and the academic literature. Home Office Impact Assessments are published on gov.uk.<\/p>
<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "groupedQuestionUIN" : {"_value" : "HL5917"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T13:57:24.95Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "National Income"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what is their estimate of the change in United Kingdom per capita gross domestic product that they would expect over the next five-year forecast period if net migration was at 165,000 a year.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4346", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Green of Deddington"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Green of Deddington"} ], "uin" : "HL5915"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228952", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228952/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The government does not forecast either UK GDP or GDP per capita. The independent OBR in the March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) used the central ONS migration population projection. The ONS central migration projection is for net migration of 165,000 a year in 2018/19 and 2019/20. In the March 2015 EFO the OBR forecast that UK GDP per capita for those aged 16 and over will increase by 9.2% total between 2014 and 2019.<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
In order to inform policy making, the government reviews and notes the wider evidence on the economic and productivity impacts of immigration on an ongoing basis. This evidence base includes the wider academic literature, and a range of reports commissioned or produced by the government looking at specific impacts, for example those produced by the independent Migration Advisory Committee. In addition, policies that influence migration are assessed using the government's impact assessment process which models the economic impact of the policy change using assumptions based on a range of evidence and the academic literature. Home Office Impact Assessments are published on gov.uk.<\/p>
<\/p>"} , "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"} } , "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"} , "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "groupedQuestionUIN" : {"_value" : "HL5915"} , "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T13:57:25.053Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} ]} , "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"} , "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"} , "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"} , "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"} , "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Productivity"} , "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"} , "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"} } ], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what is their assessment of the practical impact on United Kingdom productivity of net migration of 165,000 per year over the next five years.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"} , "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4346", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Green of Deddington"} } , "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Green of Deddington"} ], "uin" : "HL5917"} , {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228957", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"} ], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228957/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : "
The total amount of Tax Credit entitlement of recipients in each of the last three tax years can be found in Table 1.<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>
£ millions<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr> Table 1: Total entitlement of Tax Credit recipients<\/p><\/td><\/tr> Year<\/p><\/td> Out-of-work<\/p><\/td> In-work<\/p><\/td> All<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2010-11<\/p><\/td> 7,606<\/p><\/td> 20,936<\/p><\/td> 28,542<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2011-12<\/p><\/td> 8,138<\/p><\/td> 21,066<\/p><\/td> 29,203<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2012-13<\/p><\/td> 8,903<\/p><\/td> 19,876<\/p><\/td> 28,779<\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Figures in Table 1 are presented in £ millions, to the nearest 1 million, in line with HM Revenue and Customs publications. Breakdowns of recipients out-of-work and in-work have also been provided for context. Breakdowns of recipients in full-time employment, or otherwise, are unavailable.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Figures have been taken from Table 1.1 of the online publication \u2018Child and Working Tax Credit Statistics: Finalised Annual Awards 2012-13\u2019.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Figures providing total expenditure forecasts for Tax Credits in the current tax year, and the two following years can be found in Table 2.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> £ billions<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr> Table 2: Total expenditure forecasts of Tax Credits<\/p><\/td><\/tr> Year<\/p><\/td> All<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2014-15<\/p><\/td> 29.7<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2015-16<\/p><\/td> 29.5<\/p><\/td><\/tr> 2016-17<\/p><\/td> 29.8<\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Figures in Table 2 are presented in £ billions, to the nearest 100 million, in line with Office for Budget Responsibility publications.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Breakdowns by employment status, full-time or otherwise are unavailable. These figures are taken from the \u2018March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook: Fiscal Supplementary Tables\u2019 produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility and take into consideration Tax Credits as expenditure.<\/p> <\/p>"}
, "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"}
}
, "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"}
, "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T14:08:53.46Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
]}
, "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"}
, "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Welfare Tax Credits"}
, "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"}
, "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"}
}
], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government how much tax credit was paid to working people of low income in each of the last three full years; what is their forecast for the current and next two years; and, for each year, what proportion of recipients were in full-time work.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/2018", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Hylton"}
}
, "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Lord Hylton"}
], "uin" : "HL5922"}
, {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228961", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"}
], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228961/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : " Since 2010 this Government has lifted over three million people out of income tax.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> In the income tax years 2016-17 and 2017-18, it is estimated that, for individuals aged over 16, whose income would be below the Personal Allowance before the Budget announced increases, 66% are female and 41% of those individuals have dependent children.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> These estimates are derived from the results of the 2012-13 Family Resources Survey (FRS) projected forward to 2016-17 and 2017-18 using economic assumptions consistent with the Office for Budget Responsibility\u2019s March 2015 economic and fiscal outlook.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p>"}
, "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"}
}
, "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"}
, "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "groupedQuestionUIN" : {"_value" : "HL5927"}
, "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T13:57:56.977Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
]}
, "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"}
, "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Income Tax"}
, "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"}
, "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"}
}
], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what proportion of people whose earnings are too low to be affected by the increase in personal tax allowances announced in the Budget are women.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4234", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
}
, "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
], "uin" : "HL5926"}
, {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228962", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"}
], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228962/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : " Since 2010 this Government has lifted over three million people out of income tax.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> In the income tax years 2016-17 and 2017-18, it is estimated that, for individuals aged over 16, whose income would be below the Personal Allowance before the Budget announced increases, 66% are female and 41% of those individuals have dependent children.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> These estimates are derived from the results of the 2012-13 Family Resources Survey (FRS) projected forward to 2016-17 and 2017-18 using economic assumptions consistent with the Office for Budget Responsibility\u2019s March 2015 economic and fiscal outlook.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p>"}
, "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"}
}
, "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"}
, "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "groupedQuestionUIN" : {"_value" : "HL5926"}
, "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T13:57:57.143Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
]}
, "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"}
, "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Income Tax"}
, "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"}
, "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"}
}
], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what proportion of people whose incomes are too low to be affected by the increase in personal tax allowances announced in the Budget have children.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4234", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
}
, "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
], "uin" : "HL5927"}
, {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228963", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"}
], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228963/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : " As a result of increases to the personal allowance, a typical basic rate taxpayer will be £905 a year better off in 2017-18 compared with 2010-11, in cash terms. A basic rate taxpayer who also receives universal credit will still be better off from the personal allowance increase, as will a taxpayer who receives other means-tested benefits.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> Universal Credit will improve work incentives by allowing people to keep more of their income as they move into work. Universal Credit will provide a single deduction rate of 65 per cent: for each £1 increase in post-tax income, 65 pence of Universal Credit will be withdrawn.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> The Government believes that increasing the personal allowance is the most effective way to support those on low and middle incomes. It enables people to keep more of the money they earn.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p>"}
, "answeringMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4262", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Lord Deighton"}
}
, "answeringMemberPrinted" : {"_value" : "Lord Deighton"}
, "dateOfAnswer" : {"_value" : "2015-03-26", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "isMinisterialCorrection" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "questionFirstAnswered" : [{"_value" : "2015-03-26T13:55:34.937Z", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
]}
, "answeringDeptId" : {"_value" : "14"}
, "answeringDeptShortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "answeringDeptSortName" : {"_value" : "Treasury"}
, "date" : {"_value" : "2015-03-23", "_datatype" : "dateTime"}
, "hansardHeading" : {"_value" : "Income Tax"}
, "houseId" : {"_value" : "2"}
, "legislature" : [{"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/terms/25277", "prefLabel" : {"_value" : "House of Lords"}
}
], "questionText" : "To ask Her Majesty\u2019s Government what will be the net gain per pound of the increase in personal allowances announced in the Budget to a taxpayer in receipt of (1) universal credit, (2) other means-tested benefits, and (3) no means-tested benefits.", "registeredInterest" : {"_value" : "false", "_datatype" : "boolean"}
, "tablingMember" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/members/4234", "label" : {"_value" : "Biography information for Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
}
, "tablingMemberPrinted" : [{"_value" : "Baroness Lister of Burtersett"}
], "uin" : "HL5928"}
, {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228969", "AnsweringBody" : [{"_value" : "HM Treasury"}
], "answer" : {"_about" : "http://data.parliament.uk/resources/228969/answer", "answerText" : {"_value" : " The Government published its assessment of the impacts of the alcohol duty changes in the Tax Information and Impact Notes alongside the Budget document in 2013, 2014 and 2015. This information is available on the gov.uk website[1]<\/sup><\/sup>.<\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> <\/p> |