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The key assumptions behind the forecast for expected revenue from the Stamp Duty Land
Tax (SDLT) higher rates for additional properties are as set out in the Spending Review
and Autumn Statement 2015 and Budget 2016 policy costings. The tax base was estimated
by combining price and volumes data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, Census 2011
and administrative data from SDLT and Council Tax. The tax base was projected to grow
over the forecast period in line with the OBR Autumn Statement 2015 forecasts for
residential SDLT, residential transactions and average house prices. The costing also
accounted for a behavioural response. At Budget 2016 the size of the tax base was
re-estimated by the OBR using HM Revenue and Customs administrative data from SDLT
returns.
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