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<p>The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority.
I have therefore asked the Authority to respond.</p><p>Dear Lord Kennedy,</p><p>As
National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding
to your Parliamentary Question asking what assessment has made of the possible reasons
for the excess deaths in the UK since 1 March in which the cause of death was not
recorded as COVID-19 (HL6132).</p><p>The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has
investigated deaths not recorded as due to COVID-19 for England and Wales extensively,
and published their findings on the website. The analysis presents excess deaths by
age, sex, region of England, place of death and cause of death. Possible explanations
for trends are put forward, and the extent to which weekly deaths registrations data
support or contradict each suggestion is assessed. The main points of this analysis
are outlined below:</p><ul><li><p>Between 7 March and 1 May, a total of 130,009 deaths
were registered across England and Wales. This is an excess of 46,380 death registrations
compared to the five-year average. 12,900 of these deaths (27.8%) did not involve
COVID-19.</p></li><li><p>The ONS’ article is based on 98.1% of the total deaths registered
and 43,903 excess deaths, because a small proportion of deaths take longer to be fully
coded and validated for analysis.</p></li><li><p>Non-COVID-19 excess deaths occur
predominantly in older age groups, to a greater extent with increasing age, and especially
for the frail elderly with underlying conditions. Undiagnosed COVID-19 could help
explain the rise in these deaths.</p></li><li><p>In the period from week ending 13
March to week ending 1 May, over 8,000 fewer deaths were registered in hospitals,
which is a 20.9% decrease in comparison to the corresponding period in the five-year
average. In contrast, almost 11,000 more deaths (an increase of 60.5%) were registered
in care homes, and over 8,000 more deaths (an increase of 42.6%) were registered in
private homes,</p></li><li><p>In the same period, the largest increases in non-COVID-19
deaths compared to the five-year average are seen in deaths due to ‘dementia and Alzheimer
disease’ (5,404 excess deaths, an increase of 52.2%) and ‘symptoms, signs and ill-defined
conditions’, which indicates old age and frailty (1,567 excess deaths, an increase
of 77.8%). Together, these comprise two thirds of total non-COVID-19 excess deaths
in this period.</p></li><li><p>Deaths due to causes such as asthma and diabetes increased
up to the week ending 24 April and occurred increasingly outside hospital. This could
suggest that a delay in care for these conditions is leading to an increase in deaths,
although it could also be related to undiagnosed COVID-19.</p></li><li><p>Changes
to death registration processes implemented in the Coronavirus Act 2020 have led to
an increased number of death registrations made by doctors, increasing registration
efficiency overall. At present, it is not clear whether increased efficiency is a
cause or result of an increase in weekly registrations, but some further effects may
become apparent in the future for conditions where deaths have a longer registration
delay.</p></li><li><p>The other theories investigated were reduced hospital capacity,
and increases in deaths caused by stress-related conditions, but these cannot explain
much of the increase in non-COVID-19 death registrations.</p></li></ul><p>A full analysis
of non-COVID-19 excess deaths will only be possible in several months' time when longer-term
effects and additional data, both death registrations and other sources, can be considered.
This analysis only investigates death registrations in England and Wales, as the ONS
does not hold data on death registrations in the rest of the UK. Given the novel and
exploratory nature of this analysis, this report published in early June presented
findings about death registrations up to 1 May. This was a stand-alone release, rather
than a regular series. We are currently designing a follow-up, however we have no
provisional date for release as yet.</p><p>The latest information on excess deaths
in general are available in our weekly deaths registration data, with latest available
for week ending 19 July.</p><p>Yours sincerely,</p><p>Professor Sir Ian Diamond</p><p
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