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<p>As estimated by the 2015/16 Teacher Supply Model, English primary schools will
require 29,700 qualified teachers to enter the active stock in the 2015/16 academic
year. The model also estimates that English secondary schools will require 22,500
qualified teachers to enter the active stock in the 2015/16 academic year.</p><p>This
need for teachers will be met through a combination of new trainees, those returning
to the profession, and those entering the state-funded sector in England for the first
time.</p><p>The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to calculate
the optimum number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required to match the
future supply of teachers to the estimated demand for qualified teachers within the
state-funded sector in England. The National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL)
uses this information to inform their allocation of ITT places to teacher training
providers.</p><p>The estimates for the future demand for teachers use the projected
number of pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs), and our best estimates
for the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s policy initiatives.
The model also takes into account other flows within the existing stock of teachers
such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those expected to return
to teaching in the state-funded sector.</p><p>Whilst the Department estimates future
teacher demand, decision-making taken at school level determines the actual number
of teachers required. As with any forecast, uncertainty increases the further into
the future the estimate is made for.</p><p>The Department has published estimates
of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM, published online at:</p><p><a href="http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model"
target="_blank">www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model</a></p>
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