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<p>In <em>‘HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and
the alternatives</em>’ the central estimates for the annual loss of UK GDP under the
3 alternatives (relative to remaining in the EU) in 2030 are: 3.8% in the case of
the EEA, 6.2% in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, and 7.5% in the WTO
case. Expressed in 2015 terms that means a loss of GDP per household of £2,600 for
the EEA case; £4,300 for the negotiated bilateral agreement case; and £5,200 for the
WTO case.</p><p> </p><p>No estimate has been made of the impact on the EU GDP per
household. This reflects a cautious approach, as, for example, the main estimates
for the effect of leaving the EU do not take into account the negative economic impacts
on the rest of the EU as a result of UK exit or the possible foregone benefits to
the UK of future EU reform.</p>
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