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1249006

	registered interest
	date	04/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government how they plan to lift the restrictions put in place by the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No.4) Regulations 2020; and what restrictions they plan to put in place in England once those Regulations are no longer in force.
	tabling member printed	Baroness McGregor-Smith
	uin	HL9997
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 16/11/2020 answer text <p>We believe the new regulations strike the right balance to take urgent action to stem the spread of the virus while also allowing essential retail to stay open and allowing the hospitality sector to remain open for delivery and takeaway.</p><p>Throughout this crisis, the Government and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, have provided robust scientific evidence and advice to guide decisions regarding the measures taken to address the COVID-19 pandemic. Indoor settings carry higher environmental risks, due to the close proximity of people and a longer duration of exposure. This evidence continues to be published online.</p><p>On 2 December, restrictions will expire, and we intend to return to a tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell grouped question UIN HL9995 question first answered 16/11/2020 13:15:17 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	4554 label Biography information for Baroness McGregor-Smith

1249005

	registered interest
	date	04/11/2020
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the economic impact of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No.4) Regulations 2020.
	tabling member printed	Baroness McGregor-Smith
	uin	HL9996
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 18/11/2020 answer text <p>As the Chancellor said in his letter to the TSC on 4 November, HM Treasury does not prepare formal forecasts for the UK economy, which are the responsibility of the independent OBR. They will publish their next forecast on 25 November.</p><p>In addition, within their statutory mandates, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) produce analysis which reflect their independent judgements regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the likely path of the economy. They updated their projections in their Monetary Policy Report published on 5 November. This reflected UK restrictions announced up to 31 October, including “heightened England-wide measures for the period 5 November to 2 December”. In this scenario, GDP was revised downwards and is now expected to contract by 2% in Q4 reflecting the impact of stricter measures to control Covid-19.</p> answering member printed Lord Agnew of Oulton question first answered 18/11/2020 17:14:53 answering member 4689 label Biography information for Lord Agnew of Oulton
	tabling member	4554 label Biography information for Baroness McGregor-Smith

1249004

	registered interest
	date	04/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No.4) Regulations 2020, what evidence was used to inform the decision to close certain categories of businesses; and what plans they have to publish any such evidence.
	tabling member printed	Baroness McGregor-Smith
	uin	HL9995
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 16/11/2020 answer text <p>We believe the new regulations strike the right balance to take urgent action to stem the spread of the virus while also allowing essential retail to stay open and allowing the hospitality sector to remain open for delivery and takeaway.</p><p>Throughout this crisis, the Government and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, have provided robust scientific evidence and advice to guide decisions regarding the measures taken to address the COVID-19 pandemic. Indoor settings carry higher environmental risks, due to the close proximity of people and a longer duration of exposure. This evidence continues to be published online.</p><p>On 2 December, restrictions will expire, and we intend to return to a tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell grouped question UIN HL9997 question first answered 16/11/2020 13:15:17 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	4554 label Biography information for Baroness McGregor-Smith

1248556

	registered interest
	date	03/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate of the percentage of COVID-19 fatalities they applied to the forecasting models that were used to inform the decision to place England under further national restrictions to address the COVID-19 pandemic; and what was the evidence base used for this estimate.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Goss Moor
	uin	HL9958
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 11/12/2020 answer text <p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency’s (SAGE) subgroup, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational, do not have a single estimate for asymptomatic case proportions, infection hospitalisation rates, case hospitalisation rates, infection fatality rates, or case fatality rates. Individual modelling groups use their own estimates of these metrics, which are based on a wide range of data sources, including testing data, hospital admission, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. Their models are regularly updated to fit to the observed transmission of the disease and further details are publicly available.</p><p>The Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Study has estimated that approximately 55% of those individuals who test positive do not record evidence of symptoms at or around the time of the test. This does not mean these individuals will not go on to develop symptoms or had symptoms previously.</p><p>Other SAGE evidence has shown that there is wide variation in the estimated proportion of infections that are truly asymptomatic across different studies with the rapid review providing a pooled estimate, based on 22 studies, of 28% but with very wide confidence intervals.</p><p>NHS England use data from their daily COVID-19 situation report collection from individual hospital trusts to estimate current average length of stay and the proportion who require mechanical ventilation. In the run up to the national restrictions this gave an average length of stay of 7.7 days, of which 5.5% of those would be with mechanical ventilation.</p><p>The decision to re-introduce greater restrictions from 5 November until 2 December 2020 was based on a wide range of data, not just modelling estimates. These included analysis from the National Health Service on hospital capacity, the rapidly rising hospital admissions, and deaths, and the similar second waves seen across Europe.</p><p>SAGE papers from its meetings are published in an online only format on GOV.UK.</p><p><strong><br> </strong></p> answering member printed Lord Bethell grouped question UIN HL9879 HL9880 HL9882 question first answered 11/12/2020 14:36:46 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	228 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Goss Moor

1248555

	registered interest
	date	03/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate of the percentage of COVID-19 fatalities they applied to the forecasting models that were used to inform the decision to place England under national restrictions in March to address the COVID-19 pandemic; and what was the evidence base used for this estimate.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Goss Moor
	uin	HL9957
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 06/01/2021 answer text <p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency (SAGE) is responsible for ensuring that timely and coordinated scientific advice is made available to support decisions by the Government. The SAGE subgroup, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational use their own estimates of metrics such as asymptomatic case proportions, infection hospitalisation rates, or infection fatality rates. These are based on a wide range of available data sources, including testing data, hospital admission, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. Their models are regularly updated to fit to the observed transmission of the disease.</p><p>In the reasonable worst-case planning scenario from late March, SAGE’s best estimate of the infection fatality ratio was approximately 1%, however this was highly age-dependent. Precise estimates of the case fatality ratio – the proportion of people with clinical symptoms who die – are much harder, as the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic is difficult to estimate. Due to the difficulty with ascertaining the proportion of infections that are truly asymptomatic, modelling is based on estimates of the total number of infections in a population. At the time, the best estimate of the proportion of cases that were asymptomatic was 33%.</p><p>Estimates of mortality rates for those hospitalised were around 12%. However, again this was highly age-dependent, with 50% mortality in those hospitalised who require invasive ventilation.</p><p>SAGE’s estimate of the proportion of infections that required hospitalisation was 5% overall, but that this was also highly dependent on age. This reasonable worse-case planning scenario used an estimate for the number of patients requiring ventilation, mechanical or otherwise, of 30%. A copy of the SAGE paper <em>Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Scenario – 29/03/2020 </em>is attached.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell question first answered 06/01/2021 15:28:35 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell attachment 1 file name HL9878 - S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf title Reasonable Worst Scenario 29 March 2020
	tabling member	228 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Goss Moor

1248571

	registered interest
	date	03/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government whether the R rate needs to be below 1 by 2 December in order for the national COVID-19 restrictions to be lifted.
	tabling member printed	The Marquess of Lothian
	uin	HL9933
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 25/02/2021 answer text <p>‘R’ is just one of the many indicators the Government takes into account when making a decision on national COVID-19 restrictions. These include indicators related to National Health Service pressures and the weekly case rate.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell question first answered 25/02/2021 15:48:01 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	259 label Biography information for The Marquess of Lothian

1248069

	registered interest
	date	02/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of travel-to-work areas that cross local authority boundaries when setting levels of COVID-19 restrictions for local areas.
	tabling member printed	Lord Walney
	uin	HL9897
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 04/02/2021 answer text <p>Work travel patterns factored into the decision making. It is important to apply restrictions to broad geographical areas where there are significant interconnected economic and social networks. This approach enables the same restrictions to apply where people are likely to work and socialise.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell question first answered 04/02/2021 12:06:06 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	3917 label Biography information for Lord Walney

1248056

	registered interest
	date	02/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate of the percentage of COVID-19 cases that require mechanical ventilation was applied to the forecast modelling used to inform the decision to place England under national restrictions in March; and what was the evidence base used for this estimate.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Goss Moor
	uin	HL9883
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 06/01/2021 answer text <p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency (SAGE) is responsible for ensuring that timely and coordinated scientific advice is made available to support decisions by the Government. The SAGE subgroup, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational use their own estimates of metrics such as asymptomatic case proportions, infection hospitalisation rates, or infection fatality rates. These are based on a wide range of available data sources, including testing data, hospital admission, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. Their models are regularly updated to fit to the observed transmission of the disease.</p><p>In the reasonable worst-case planning scenario from late March, SAGE’s best estimate of the infection fatality ratio was approximately 1%, however this was highly age-dependent. Precise estimates of the case fatality ratio – the proportion of people with clinical symptoms who die – are much harder, as the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic is difficult to estimate. Due to the difficulty with ascertaining the proportion of infections that are truly asymptomatic, modelling is based on estimates of the total number of infections in a population. At the time, the best estimate of the proportion of cases that were asymptomatic was 33%.</p><p>Estimates of mortality rates for those hospitalised were around 12%. However, again this was highly age-dependent, with 50% mortality in those hospitalised who require invasive ventilation.</p><p>SAGE’s estimate of the proportion of infections that required hospitalisation was 5% overall, but that this was also highly dependent on age. This reasonable worse-case planning scenario used an estimate for the number of patients requiring ventilation, mechanical or otherwise, of 30%. A copy of the SAGE paper <em>Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Scenario – 29/03/2020 </em>is attached.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell question first answered 06/01/2021 15:28:24 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell attachment 1 file name HL9878 - S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf title Reasonable Worst Case Scenario 29 March 2020
	tabling member	228 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Goss Moor

1248055

	registered interest
	date	02/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate of the percentage of COVID-19 cases that require mechanical ventilation was applied to the forecast modelling used to inform their decision to place England under national restrictions until 2 December; and what was the evidence base used for this estimate.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Goss Moor
	uin	HL9882
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 11/12/2020 answer text <p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency’s (SAGE) subgroup, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational, do not have a single estimate for asymptomatic case proportions, infection hospitalisation rates, case hospitalisation rates, infection fatality rates, or case fatality rates. Individual modelling groups use their own estimates of these metrics, which are based on a wide range of data sources, including testing data, hospital admission, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. Their models are regularly updated to fit to the observed transmission of the disease and further details are publicly available.</p><p>The Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Study has estimated that approximately 55% of those individuals who test positive do not record evidence of symptoms at or around the time of the test. This does not mean these individuals will not go on to develop symptoms or had symptoms previously.</p><p>Other SAGE evidence has shown that there is wide variation in the estimated proportion of infections that are truly asymptomatic across different studies with the rapid review providing a pooled estimate, based on 22 studies, of 28% but with very wide confidence intervals.</p><p>NHS England use data from their daily COVID-19 situation report collection from individual hospital trusts to estimate current average length of stay and the proportion who require mechanical ventilation. In the run up to the national restrictions this gave an average length of stay of 7.7 days, of which 5.5% of those would be with mechanical ventilation.</p><p>The decision to re-introduce greater restrictions from 5 November until 2 December 2020 was based on a wide range of data, not just modelling estimates. These included analysis from the National Health Service on hospital capacity, the rapidly rising hospital admissions, and deaths, and the similar second waves seen across Europe.</p><p>SAGE papers from its meetings are published in an online only format on GOV.UK.</p><p><strong><br> </strong></p> answering member printed Lord Bethell grouped question UIN HL9879 HL9880 HL9958 question first answered 11/12/2020 14:36:46 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell
	tabling member	228 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Goss Moor

1248054

	registered interest
	date	02/11/2020
	answering body	Department of Health and Social Care
	answering dept id	17
	answering dept short name	Health and Social Care
	answering dept sort name	Health and Social Care
	hansard heading	Coronavirus: Disease Control
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate of the percentage of COVID-19 cases that lead to hospital admissions was applied to the forecast modelling used to inform their decision to place England under national restrictions in March; and what was the evidence base used for this estimate.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Goss Moor
	uin	HL9881
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 06/01/2021 answer text <p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency (SAGE) is responsible for ensuring that timely and coordinated scientific advice is made available to support decisions by the Government. The SAGE subgroup, Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational use their own estimates of metrics such as asymptomatic case proportions, infection hospitalisation rates, or infection fatality rates. These are based on a wide range of available data sources, including testing data, hospital admission, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. Their models are regularly updated to fit to the observed transmission of the disease.</p><p>In the reasonable worst-case planning scenario from late March, SAGE’s best estimate of the infection fatality ratio was approximately 1%, however this was highly age-dependent. Precise estimates of the case fatality ratio – the proportion of people with clinical symptoms who die – are much harder, as the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic is difficult to estimate. Due to the difficulty with ascertaining the proportion of infections that are truly asymptomatic, modelling is based on estimates of the total number of infections in a population. At the time, the best estimate of the proportion of cases that were asymptomatic was 33%.</p><p>Estimates of mortality rates for those hospitalised were around 12%. However, again this was highly age-dependent, with 50% mortality in those hospitalised who require invasive ventilation.</p><p>SAGE’s estimate of the proportion of infections that required hospitalisation was 5% overall, but that this was also highly dependent on age. This reasonable worse-case planning scenario used an estimate for the number of patients requiring ventilation, mechanical or otherwise, of 30%. A copy of the SAGE paper <em>Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Scenario – 29/03/2020 </em>is attached.</p> answering member printed Lord Bethell question first answered 06/01/2021 15:28:30 answering member 4708 label Biography information for Lord Bethell attachment 1 file name HL9878 - S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf title Reasonable Worst Case Scenario March 2020
	tabling member	228 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Goss Moor