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<p>The following table provides estimates for the number of teachers needed in each
academic year from 2016/17 to 2020/21. This need for teachers will be met through
a combination of new trainees, those returning to the profession and those entering
the state-funded sector in England for the first time.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><table><tbody><tr><td>
</td><td><p><strong>2016/17</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2017/18</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2018/19</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2019/20</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2020/21</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Primary</strong></p></td><td><p>30,200</p></td><td><p>29,200</p></td><td><p>28,400</p></td><td><p>27,200</p></td><td><p>28,000</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Secondary</strong></p></td><td><p>23,500</p></td><td><p>24,200</p></td><td><p>24,900</p></td><td><p>25,100</p></td><td><p>24,500</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>
</p><p><em>Source: Teacher Supply Model</em></p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The Department
for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number
of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required to match the future supply of teachers
to the estimated demand for qualified teachers within the state-funded sector in England.
The National College of Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) use this information to inform
their allocation of ITT places to teacher training providers.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>
</p><p>The estimates for the future demand for teachers use the projected number of
pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs) and our best estimates for
the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s policy initiatives.
The model also takes into account other flows within the existing stock of teachers
such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those expected to return
to teaching in the state-funded sector.</p><p> </p><p>The Department forecasts the
need for teacher trainees one year in advance in line with the annual ITT allocation
decisions. However, the TSM also forecasts teacher demand over ten years to provide
an overview of long term trends.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Whilst the Department
estimates future teacher demand, decision-making taken at school level determines
the actual number of teachers required. As with any forecast, the uncertainty increases
the further we look into the future.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The Department
has published estimates of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM, which is published
online at: <a href="http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model"
target="_blank">www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model</a></p><p>
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