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<p>HM Government continuously monitors the global economy, and the Office for Budget
Responsibility (OBR) produces the Government’s official economic forecasts. The OBR’s
most recent forecast was published in March 2019 and can be accessed at https://obr.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2019/.
The UK economy remains resilient, growing for the ninth consecutive year in 2018.
The employment rate is currently at a record high, unemployment is currently at its
lowest rate since 1974, and real wages are rising.</p><p> </p><p>In October 2018 the
IMF estimated the impact of a trade tensions escalation. They estimated the impact
would be global real GDP 0.2% lower in 2019 and 0.21% lower in the long term. The
analysis also highlighted that the near term negative impact could be exacerbated
by a decline in confidence and market reaction.</p><p> </p><p>The UK has consistently
stressed the importance of de-escalating trade tensions, which are in no one’s interest.</p>
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