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<p>The Office for Budget Responsibility is independent of Ministers and any views
published are their own.</p><p>Since November 2016, the OBR has not assumed any one
particular outcome to EU exit negotiations but has based its forecasts on broad-brush
assumptions regarding Brexit that are consistent with a range of possible outcomes,
as well as judgements about the economy following the referendum.</p><p>In its October
2018 forecast, the OBR have included a two-year transition period. After this they
assume leaving the EU will reduce trade intensity which affects both imports and exports
with a broadly offsetting impact on net trade. In its latest forecast, the OBR also
revised down its forecast for world trade growth, contributing to a downward revision
in UK export market growth in the near term. These factors contribute to the decline
in exports as a share of GDP.</p><p>Going forward, the Government will continue to
provide support for UK exporters through the Department for International Trade by
encouraging more businesses to export, providing information, advice and practical
assistance on exporting, connecting UK businesses to overseas buyers, and putting
finance at the heart of our offer through UK Export Finance.</p>
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