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<p>The Department of Energy and Climate Change and Defra have supported the AVOID
Research Programme to project long-term climate change scenarios to understand how
emissions reductions translate to global average surface temperature change. Based
on a snapshot of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) pledged
by 1 October 2015, with an assumed continuation of comparable global emissions reduction
to the end of the century, this analysis projects:</p><br /><p>(a) (i) by 2050, with
continued rise in global greenhouse gas emissions, warming of between 2.3˚C and 2.6
˚C;</p><p>(ii) by 2050, if all INDCs are delivered and continued, warming of 2˚C;</p><br
/><p>(b) (i) by 2100, with continued rise in global greenhouse gas emissions, warming
of between 4.2˚C and 5.2 ˚C;</p><p>(ii) by 2100, if all Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions are delivered and continued, warming of 3˚C.</p><br /><p>All of these
estimates are temperature changes relative to pre-industrial global average surface
temperature and best estimates of the climate’s sensitivity to increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations.</p><br /><p>Under the Climate Change Act 2008, the Government
has a statutory role to produce, on a five-yearly cycle, an assessment of the risks
and opportunities for the UK arising from climate change. The first Climate Change
Risk Assessment (CCRA) was published in 2012. It included consideration of impacts
on our coastlines, on the frequency and severity of extreme weather, and on our food
production. The CCRA used the 2009 UK Climate Change Projections to assess risks under
different emissions scenarios up to the 2100s.</p><br /><p>The National Adaptation
Programme report which Defra published in July 2013 sets out how we are preparing
for the impacts of climate change. This sets out more than 370 actions across key
sectors involving government, business, councils, civil society and academia.</p><br
/><p>Work is underway on the second CCRA, which will include an up-to-date review
of evidence on the effects of climate change. The CCRA Government Report and the associated
evidence report will be published in January 2017. These will inform the next National
Adaptation Programme due around 2018.</p><br /><p>The Global Food Security programme
recently launched a joint research council five-year £15 million research call on
resilience of the food supply chain, in partnership with Defra and the Food Standards
Agency.</p>
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