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<p>Of the 204 emissions scenarios included in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report database
with climate model projections which are consistent with a more than 50% chance of
keeping global warming below 2 °C by 2100:</p><p>(a)177 of these include negative
emissions technologies; and</p><p>(b)noting that the scenarios do not consider emissions
in 2015, but rather for each decade:</p><p>(i) 111 of the scenarios require emissions
to peak by 2010; and</p><p>(ii) 46 additional scenarios require emissions to peak
by 2020.</p><br /><p>The remainder either do not report total emissions (11) or peak
after 2020. The general features of the scenarios in this database show that delaying
strong action to reduce emissions would increase the risk of exceeding 2 °C of warming
and associated impacts, and require deeper emissions cuts in the future and/or a heavier
reliance on negative emissions technologies at scale. This is why the Department is
seeking ambitious global action on climate change in Paris.</p>
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