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<p>The following table provides estimates for the number of teachers needed in the
English state funded-sector in each academic year from 2015/16 to 2020/21 for maths,
physics, and computing. This need for teachers will be met through a combination of
new trainees, those returning to the profession, and those entering the state-funded
sector in England for the first time.</p><table><tbody><tr><td> </td><td><p><strong>2015/16</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2016/17</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2017/18</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2018/19</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2019/20</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>2020/21</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Maths</strong></p></td><td><p>3,300</p></td><td><p>3,400</p></td><td><p>3,700</p></td><td><p>3,600</p></td><td><p>3,600</p></td><td><p>3,600</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Physics</strong></p></td><td><p>1,000</p></td><td><p>1,200</p></td><td><p>1,100</p></td><td><p>1,100</p></td><td><p>1,100</p></td><td><p>1,100</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>Computing</strong></p></td><td><p>900</p></td><td><p>900</p></td><td><p>1,000</p></td><td><p>1,000</p></td><td><p>1,000</p></td><td><p>1,000</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>Source:
Teacher Supply Model</em></p><p>The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply
Model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places
required to match the future supply of teachers to the estimated demand for qualified
teachers within the state-funded sector in England. The National College for Teaching
and Leadership (NCTL) use this information to inform their allocation of ITT places
to teacher training providers.</p><p>The estimates for the future demand for teachers
use the projected number of pupils in schools, assumed Pupil Teacher Ratios (PTRs)
and our best estimates for the number of teachers required to implement the Department’s
policy initiatives. The model also takes into account other flows within the existing
stock of teachers such as those leaving the profession or retiring as well as those
expected to return to teaching in the state-funded sector.</p><p>The Department forecasts
the need for teacher trainees one year in advance in line with the annual ITT allocation
decisions. However, the TSM also forecasts teacher demand over ten years to provide
an overview of long term trends.</p><p>Whilst the Department estimates future teacher
demand, decision-making taken at school level determines the actual number of teachers
required. As with any forecast, uncertainty increases the further into the future
the estimate is made for.</p><p>The Department has published estimates of teacher
demand in part 1 of the TSM, published online at:</p><p><a href="http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model"
target="_blank">www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model</a></p><p>
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