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<p /> <p>The Government believes that convicted adult offenders should pay towards
the costs of running the criminal courts. Recovering some of the costs of the criminal
courts from convicted offenders will reduce the burden on taxpayers of funding the
courts system.</p><p> </p><p>The estimates are set out in tables below. The estimates
are based on draft charge levels that were published in July 2014<strong>. </strong>The
charge levels are currently being finalised and so the forecast of the amounts we
expect to collect may change.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Gross cash inflow</strong></p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Scenario:</p></td><td><p>15/16</p></td><td><p>16/17</p></td><td><p>17/18</p></td><td><p>18/19</p></td><td><p>19/20</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><em>Based
on current fine payment rates</em></p></td><td><p>£5m</p></td><td><p>£75m</p></td><td><p>£100m</p></td><td><p>£105m</p></td><td><p>£105m</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><em>Based
on income-based payment model (high scenario)</em></p></td><td><p>£15m</p></td><td><p>£75m</p></td><td><p>£105m</p></td><td><p>£135m</p></td><td><p>£160m</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>
</p><p><strong>Net cash inflows</strong></p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Scenario:</p></td><td><p>15/16</p></td><td><p>16/17</p></td><td><p>17/18</p></td><td><p>18/19</p></td><td><p>19/20</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><em>Based
on current fine payment rates</em></p></td><td><p>-£20m</p></td><td><p>£50m</p></td><td><p>£75m</p></td><td><p>£80m</p></td><td><p>£80m</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><em>Based
on income-based payment model (high scenario)</em></p></td><td><p>-£10m</p></td><td><p>£50m</p></td><td><p>£80m</p></td><td><p>£110m</p></td><td><p>£135m</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>Figures
in both tables are rounded to the nearest £5 million and are in real terms. They include
a 20% adjustment for optimism bias.</em></p><p> </p><p>Two separate approaches have
been adopted to estimate future revenues from the charge. One approach (the fines-based
model) is based on the current repayment rates of fines by offenders, while the other
approach (income-based model) is based on data on offenders’ means. The two approaches
allow us to consider different aspects of the impact of the charge. We have used two
discrete models to allow cross-validation of the different models’ estimates, and
to provide a range for the revenue forecasts.</p>
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