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Under the current tariff regime, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility
have forecast tariff revenue to be £3.5bn in 2019/20. In the event of a no deal it
will not be possible to replicate our current trading arrangements. The yield raised
from tariffs, under the temporary tariff regime, is likely to be highly sensitive
to any behavioural response, wider economic conditions, and judgements on modelling
assumptions taken by the Office for Budget Responsibility. It is therefore not possible
to provide a firm estimate at this stage of a full year of the temporary tariff regime
but in the event of no deal, the tariffs policy would be reflected in a future Office
for Budget Responsibility fiscal forecast.
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