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<p>The Department last published forecasts of road traffic in 2015 <a href="http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015"
target="_blank">www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015</a>.
Estimates of future trips by mode in the format set out in UIN 214853 were not in
this publication but are set out below for one of our five forecast scenarios (scenario
1)</p><p> </p><p>Average Trips per person annually by mode (GB, RTF15 Scenario 1)</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p><strong>Annual
trips</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Walk</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Cycle</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Car
Driver</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Car Passenger</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Bus</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Rail</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Total</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2015</strong></p></td><td><p>307.0</p></td><td><p>22.1</p></td><td><p>453.4</p></td><td><p>228.1</p></td><td><p>84.9</p></td><td><p>24.4</p></td><td><p>1,119.9</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2020</strong></p></td><td><p>302.3</p></td><td><p>21.1</p></td><td><p>468.3</p></td><td><p>223.7</p></td><td><p>79.3</p></td><td><p>23.9</p></td><td><p>1,118.5</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2025</strong></p></td><td><p>298.2</p></td><td><p>20.1</p></td><td><p>483.1</p></td><td><p>219.5</p></td><td><p>73.3</p></td><td><p>23.2</p></td><td><p>1,117.4</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2030</strong></p></td><td><p>296.1</p></td><td><p>20.0</p></td><td><p>488.2</p></td><td><p>216.4</p></td><td><p>71.5</p></td><td><p>23.7</p></td><td><p>1,115.9</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2035</strong></p></td><td><p>291.7</p></td><td><p>20.6</p></td><td><p>497.0</p></td><td><p>215.0</p></td><td><p>67.0</p></td><td><p>23.5</p></td><td><p>1,114.8</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2040</strong></p></td><td><p>290.4</p></td><td><p>20.5</p></td><td><p>503.9</p></td><td><p>213.8</p></td><td><p>64.8</p></td><td><p>24.1</p></td><td><p>1,117.5</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>
</p><p>Average length of trips by mode (GB, RTF15 Scenario 1)</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p><strong>miles
</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Walk</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Cycle</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Car
Driver</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Car Passenger</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Bus</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Rail</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Total</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2015</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.5</p></td><td><p>9.0</p></td><td><p>10.0</p></td><td><p>7.8</p></td><td><p>24.6</p></td><td><p>7.1</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2020</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.4</p></td><td><p>9.1</p></td><td><p>10.0</p></td><td><p>7.9</p></td><td><p>24.5</p></td><td><p>7.2</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2025</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.3</p></td><td><p>9.2</p></td><td><p>10.1</p></td><td><p>8.1</p></td><td><p>24.5</p></td><td><p>7.2</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2030</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.3</p></td><td><p>9.2</p></td><td><p>10.1</p></td><td><p>8.1</p></td><td><p>24.6</p></td><td><p>7.3</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2035</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.2</p></td><td><p>9.2</p></td><td><p>10.1</p></td><td><p>8.3</p></td><td><p>24.5</p></td><td><p>7.3</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><strong>2040</strong></p></td><td><p>0.8</p></td><td><p>2.2</p></td><td><p>9.2</p></td><td><p>10.1</p></td><td><p>8.6</p></td><td><p>24.7</p></td><td><p>7.3</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>
</p><p>Notes on the tables:</p><ul><li>These are for personal trips based on main
mode of travel. The National Transport Model (NTM) does not produce mode information
for different stages of the same trip.</li><li>These estimates are based on scenario
1 in the Road Traffic Forecasts 2015 (see <a href="http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015"
target="_blank">www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015</a>).</li><li>Figures
are for Great Britain and so cannot be directly compared to published National Travel
Survey statistics on average trips and trip lengths by mode, which are for England
only.</li><li>The estimated number of walking trips is higher than latest National
Travel Survey statistics. This is due to the estimates being based on older NTS data
when walking trips were at a higher level. Forecasts for car travel are calibrated
to actual traffic statistics so are not considered to be affected by this variance.</li><li>The
forecasts do not account for the Departments Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy,
which was still in development when these forecasts were estimated.</li><li>There
were five scenarios published in RTF15. Scenario 1 has been presented here for consistency
with the methodology used in the answer to UIN 214853. The other scenarios are based
on alternative forecasting assumptions and will produce different forecast numbers
of trips.</li><li>The NTM road traffic forecasts are based on our understanding of
the way people make travel choices, the expected path of the key drivers and travel
behaviour at the time the forecast is made and assume no change in government policy
beyond that already announced.</li><li>Estimates of future trips and trip lengths
by modes other than car travel are calculated solely for the purpose of forecasting
traffic, and are not used as forecasts by the Department for policy or appraisal purposes.</li><li>The
NTM is not the Department’s primary forecasting tool for rail. The forecasts will
not match with rail forecasts the Department has published elsewhere.</li><li>The
National Transport Model is being updated to incorporate latest data on travel behaviour,
including on mode of travel and distances travelled.</li></ul>
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