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<p>There has been a long term reduction in annual tobacco duty receipts, driven by
above-RPI increases in duty and changing attitudes to smoking. As shown in the published
Tobacco Bulletin July 2018.</p><p> </p><p>In their November 2016 Economic and fiscal
outlook the Office of Budget Responsibility revised their estimates of the underlying
downward trend in clearances of tobacco. This was to account for various factors including
weakness in tobacco receipts and the expected effects of the Tobacco Products Directive.
Paragraph 4.75 noted that the effect on receipts from the introduction of standardised
tobacco packaging is assumed to be captured by this downward trend in clearances across
the forecast period.</p>
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