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1199448

	registered interest
	date	02/06/2020
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the combined economic cost to the UK of Brexit and COVID-19.
	tabling member printed	Lord Truscott
	uin	HL5134
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 15/06/2020 answer text <p>HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the economy or public finances.</p><p> </p><p>The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts of the economy and public finances. Their forecasts incorporate their assessment of the economic and fiscal impact of EU exit.</p><p> </p><p>On 14 April the OBR published a reference scenario assessing the potential impact of coronavirus. In this scenario GDP is assumed to fall by 35 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 before recovering in subsequent quarters. The OBR note that the Government’s policy response should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances.</p><p> </p><p>The economic impact of our relationship with the EU is subject to thriving public debate amongst analysts. The specifics of EU exit depend on the outcome of detailed negotiations. We will continue to keep Parliament informed with appropriate analysis at appropriate times in a way that does not impede our ability to strike the best deal for the UK.</p><p> </p> answering member printed Lord Agnew of Oulton question first answered 15/06/2020 13:08:23 answering member 4689 label Biography information for Lord Agnew of Oulton
	tabling member	3682 label Biography information for Lord Truscott

795198

	registered interest
	date	27/11/2017
	answering body	HM Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	CaTreasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of (1) the findings released by the European Commission on 30 October showing that industry and consumer confidence in the Eurozone economies is at its highest level for 17 years, and (2) prospects for growth in the those economies; and what comparative assessment they have made of (a) confidence in the economy, and (b) prospects for growth, in the UK, following the Office for Budget Responsibility's announcement that the UK economy will not grow as fast as previously forecast.
	tabling member printed	Lord Birt
	uin	HL3600
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 05/12/2017 answer text <p>The Treasury continuously monitors global and European economic developments as part of the normal process of domestic policy development.</p><p> </p><p>Euro area growth has become increasingly robust in recent quarters. This has helped boost economic sentiment, as the European Commission’s publication on 30 October notes. They consider that the outlook for euro area growth remains positive; growth forecasts were revised up for the euro area in the Autumn Forecast, released November 9.</p><p> </p><p>The UK economy is also fundamentally strong. The economy has grown for 19 consecutive quarters, employment is close to a record high and the deficit has been cut by three quarters. UK consumer confidence has been relatively stable over the last six months. However there is more to do: improving our productivity remains the key to raising living standards over the long term. That is why we have invested over a quarter of a trillion pounds in infrastructure, cut taxes to support business investment and reformed technical education.</p><p> </p><p>The UK welcomes the stronger macroeconomic outlook for the euro area. It is in Britain’s interest to see a stable and prosperous euro area</p> answering member printed Lord Bates question first answered 05/12/2017 16:18:17 answering member 1091 label Biography information for Lord Bates
	tabling member	2533 label Biography information for Lord Birt

971230

	registered interest
	date	10/09/2018
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of reports that the UK economy may face a short-term slowdown in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Warwick
	uin	HL10226
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 19/09/2018 answer text <p>The Government has published its White Paper on the future relationship, which is our vision for a bold, ambitious and innovative new partnership with the EU.</p><p> </p><p>The Government remains confident the UK and EU will agree a mutually advantageous deal. Leaving the EU without a deal is in neither side’s interests.</p><p> </p><p>Once the Government has agreed a deal with the EU we will provide Parliament with the appropriate analysis of that deal ahead of the vote on the final deal.</p> answering member printed Lord Bates question first answered 19/09/2018 11:20:09 answering member 1091 label Biography information for Lord Bates
	tabling member	1796 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Warwick

1470480

	registered interest
	date	14/06/2022
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report OECD Economic Outlook, published on 8 June; and what assessment they have made of the prediction in that report that Britain will experience zero economic growth in 2023.
	tabling member printed	Lord Truscott
	uin	HL972
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 23/06/2022 answer text <p>The OECD’s latest Economic Outlook underlines the uncertainty around the global economic outlook. The OECD forecast global growth will slow sharply this year and to remain at a subdued pace in 2023 linked to the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflationary pressures across many economies and continuing effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The OECD estimates global growth of 3.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.</p><p> </p><p>The OECD forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.6% this year, the second fastest in the G7, while growth in 2021 was the highest of the G7 (7.4%). Looking ahead, we face challenges across the global economy – common challenges with other countries including high inflation. This is why we are taking significant action to support households with the cost of living totalling around £37bn this year. We also continue to make progress against our plan for growth to support the economy, including a landmark capital uplift in the Spending Review 2021, the creation of the UK Infrastructure Bank, more funding for apprenticeships and skills training, a commitment to double public investment in R&amp;D, and the launch of the UK-wide Help to Grow scheme.</p> answering member printed Baroness Penn question first answered 23/06/2022 14:31:09 answering member 4726 label Biography information for Baroness Penn
	tabling member	3682 label Biography information for Lord Truscott

944436

	registered interest
	date	18/07/2018
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the effects of Brexit on the UK economy to date.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Warwick
	uin	HL9671
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 31/07/2018 answer text <p>The UK economy is resilient. The economy has grown every year since 2010, and in 2017, growth remained solid at 1.7%. In their Spring Statement 2018 forecast, the Office for Budget Responsibility expected that the UK economy will continue to grow in 2018 and throughout the forecast period. The labour market continues to show strength with both the employment level and employment rate at record highs, and unemployment at the lowest rate in 40 years. The UK government wants to protect jobs and support growth through an economic partnership with the EU, and proposals for our future relationship with the EU are set out in the White Paper.</p> answering member printed Lord Bates question first answered 31/07/2018 12:03:19 answering member 1091 label Biography information for Lord Bates
	tabling member	1796 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Warwick

1489777

	registered interest
	date	15/07/2022
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the effects of total global debt reaching 352 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of this year; and what steps they will take in response.
	tabling member printed	Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle
	uin	HL1789
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 22/07/2022 answer text <p>HM Government continually monitors developments in the global economy, including public and private debt levels, interest rates and the growth outlook, among other macroeconomic indicators.</p><p> </p><p>Total global debt increased following the onset of the pandemic in 2020, reflecting a rise in public and private debt. Public debt increased as governments introduced fiscal support to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on livelihoods, whilst revenues fell in line with the broader decline in economic activity. This fiscal support helped maintain living standards and support global growth. Private debt has also increased, with government policies helping to maintain private access to credit to mitigate a more severe downturn.</p><p> </p><p>Higher global debt levels can increase financial fragilities and lower growth by reducing investment. Against a backdrop of higher debt levels, rapidly rising global interest rates and higher energy and food prices may worsen balance of payment and fiscal pressures and increase risks of debt distress, particularly for some emerging and developing economies.</p><p> </p><p>HMG works closely with major international organisations, including the IMF, World Bank, to understand how debt levels are changing, and on necessary international policy responses, including appropriate support for economies experiencing debt distress. For example, the UK has committed to channelling circa up to 20% of its allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF’s 2021 general allocation of SDRs to those countries most in need; and is driving forward the implementation of the G20/Paris Club Common Framework for debt treatment to support eligible low-income countries with unsustainable debt.</p><p> </p><p>In the April World Economic Outlook the IMF emphasised the need for guaranteeing an orderly system for resolving debt, including the continued application of the Common Framework, where liquidity support alone is not sufficient. In the UK, public debt increased during the pandemic, in line with other countries around the world. In recognition of the risks of high debt, the UK government has already made responsible decisions which return public debt levels to a sustainable path, supported by fiscal rules which require debt to fall as a proportion of GDP over the medium-term.</p> answering member printed Baroness Penn question first answered 22/07/2022 09:55:38 answering member 4726 label Biography information for Baroness Penn
	tabling member	4719 label Biography information for Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle

1416173

	registered interest
	date	24/01/2022
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what recent assessment they have made of the strength of the UK economy.
	tabling member printed	Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick
	uin	HL5642
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 07/02/2022 answer text <p>Last year we saw a faster-than-previously-expected economic recovery, with output in November above pre-crisis levels for the first time, and, in their latest forecast, the IMF expect the UK to be the fastest growing G7 economy this year. Our Plan for Jobs is working.</p><p> </p><p>However, global supply chain disruptions and higher energy prices represent challenges that are driving higher inflation. These are global problems which we are working with our international partners on, and we are supporting households with the cost of living, providing support worth around £12bn this financial year and next alongside an announced £9.1bn package to help households with rising energy bills in 2022-23.</p> answering member printed Baroness Penn question first answered 07/02/2022 17:51:29 answering member 4726 label Biography information for Baroness Penn
	tabling member	4130 label Biography information for Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick

1440634

	registered interest
	date	14/03/2022
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what recent assessment they have made of the strength of the UK economy.
	tabling member printed	Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick
	uin	HL6943
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 28/03/2022 answer text <p>Last year the UK saw a faster-than-previously-expected economic recovery, with the fastest growth in the G7 and unemployment was lower than expected. But there are significant headwinds and uncertainty ahead.</p><p> </p><p>The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has published an updated forecast for the UK economy on 23 March alongside the Spring Statement. While the forecast includes the initial effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OBR have acknowledged that “given the unfolding situation in Ukraine, there is unusually high uncertainty around this outlook.” The OBR expect growth of 3.8% in 2022.</p> answering member printed Baroness Penn question first answered 28/03/2022 12:06:38 answering member 4726 label Biography information for Baroness Penn
	tabling member	4130 label Biography information for Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick

776782

	registered interest
	date	24/10/2017
	answering body	HM Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	CaTreasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they have changed their assessment of the economic impact on the UK of leaving the EU from that set out in the April 2016 document HM Treasury Analysis — the long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.
	tabling member printed	Lord Hutton of Furness
	uin	HL2446
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 06/11/2017 answer text <p>Government has undertaken a significant amount of work to assess the economic impacts of leaving the EU. This is part of our continued programme of rigorous and extensive analytical work on a range of scenarios on a sector by sector basis.</p><p> </p><p>Our long-term analysis examined scenarios based on existing alternative models to EU membership. The Prime Minister has since ‎made clear however that the UK aims to agree an ambitious and comprehensive economic partnership with the EU that is of far greater scope and ambition than any existing free trade agreement</p> answering member printed Lord Bates question first answered 06/11/2017 15:27:09 answering member 1091 label Biography information for Lord Bates
	tabling member	494 label Biography information for Lord Hutton of Furness

1678749

	registered interest
	date	18/12/2023
	answering body	Treasury
	answering dept id	14
	answering dept short name	Treasury
	answering dept sort name	Treasury
	hansard heading	Economic Situation
	house id	2
	legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
	question text	To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of reports of increasing consumer confidence and economic recovery in the coming months, as indicated by (1) the S&P Global/Cips Flash UK PMI composite output index, and (2) GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index, both published on 15 December; and what steps they are taking to support this.
	tabling member printed	Lord Taylor of Warwick
	uin	HL1308
	answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 21/12/2023 answer text <p>Consumer confidence, as measured by GfK, reached a 3-month high in December, and its second-highest level since January 2022. The flash composite PMI for December rose to a six-month high.</p><p> </p><p>To sustain consumer and business confidence, consumers and businesses need to feel assured that their government is taking the long-term decisions necessary to strengthen the economy, promote macroeconomic stability, and build a brighter future.</p><p> </p><p>In January 2023 the Prime Minister set out three economic priorities: to halve inflation, grow the economy and reduce debt. Progress is being made against all three of these.</p><p> </p><p>Consumers are directly benefitting from the responsible approach taken to prioritise economic stability and make work pay. The cut in National Insurance contributions means the average worker on £35,400 will receive a tax cut in 2024-25 of over £450. From 1 April 2024, the National Living Wage (NLW) will increase by 9.8% to £11.44, representing an increase of over £1,800 to the annual earnings of a full-time worker on the NLW.</p><p> </p><p>The Autumn Statement included an ambitious package of measures to unlock business investment. Permanent full expensing, worth over £10 billion a year, is the biggest business tax cut in modern British history. The OBR expect it to unlock an additional £14 billion of investment over the forecast period. Together with submitted plans for investment in regulated utilities, the Autumn Statement measures could raise business investment by around £20 billion per year in a decade’s time.</p> answering member printed Baroness Vere of Norbiton question first answered 21/12/2023 10:18:44 answering member 4580 label Biography information for Baroness Vere of Norbiton
	tabling member	1796 label Biography information for Lord Taylor of Warwick