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<p>The Government remains focused on ensuring a smooth and orderly withdrawal from
the EU with a deal as soon as possible.</p><p>In November 2018, the Government delivered
on its commitment to provide appropriate analysis to Parliament with a robust, objective
assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the economy of the UK across different
EU exit scenarios. The no deal scenario is based on an assessment of the average trade
barriers that a country trading on WTO terms faces. Whilst all economic modelling
is inherently uncertain, the increase in trade barriers under the modelled no deal
scenario is estimated to result in lower UK-EU trade volumes in the long run compared
to today's arrangements; (1) UK imports from the EU are estimated to be between 34-43%
lower and (2) UK exports to the EU are estimated to be between 30-40% lower.</p><p>
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