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1128086

registered interest
date	22/05/2019
answering body	Department for Exiting the European Union
answering dept id	203
answering dept short name	Exiting the European Union
answering dept sort name	Exiting the European Union
hansard heading	Brexit
house id	2
legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the differential impact of (1) leaving the EU without a deal, and (2) staying in the EU, over the next 10 years.
tabling member printed	Lord Radice
uin	HL15935
answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 04/06/2019 answer text <p>The 2016 referendum delivered a clear instruction to withdraw from the European Union, which the Government is committed to implementing. The Government remains focused on ensuring a smooth and orderly withdrawal from the EU with a deal as soon as possible.</p><p>In November 2018, the Government delivered on its commitment to provide appropriate analysis to Parliament with a robust, objective assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the economy of the UK in the long run (circa 15 years). The analysis considers a range of scenarios, including a no deal scenario. All scenarios are compared to today’s arrangements, but this is not a specific projection of future membership of the EU; the future direction of EU policy is uncertain, and could have both positive and negative impacts on the UK economy. Whilst all economic modelling is inherently uncertain, the analysis shows that compared to today’s arrangements, GDP in the modelled no deal scenario is estimated to be between 6.3% and 9% lower in the long run.</p><p> </p> answering member printed Lord Callanan question first answered 04/06/2019 11:03:33 answering member 4336 label Biography information for Lord Callanan
tabling member	510 label Biography information for Lord Radice

1128087

registered interest
date	22/05/2019
answering body	Department for Exiting the European Union
answering dept id	203
answering dept short name	Exiting the European Union
answering dept sort name	Exiting the European Union
hansard heading	Brexit
house id	2
legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government how much they have spent on preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
tabling member printed	Lord Radice
uin	HL15936
answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 04/06/2019 answer text <p>Additional EU Exit funding, allocated by HM Treasury to departments and the Devolved Administrations, covers all scenarios. ‘No deal’ spending cannot readily be separated from ‘deal’ spending given significant overlap in plans in many cases. HM Treasury has since 2016 allocated over £4.2 billion of funding, for all exit scenarios.</p><p> </p> answering member printed Lord Callanan question first answered 04/06/2019 11:03:56 answering member 4336 label Biography information for Lord Callanan
tabling member	510 label Biography information for Lord Radice

1127434

registered interest
date	20/05/2019
answering body	Department for Exiting the European Union
answering dept id	203
answering dept short name	Exiting the European Union
answering dept sort name	Exiting the European Union
hansard heading	UK Trade with EU
house id	2
legislature	25277 pref label House of Lords
question text	To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact on the level of (1) imports, and (2) exports, with the EU if the UK were to trade on World Trade Organisation terms alone.
tabling member printed	Lord Livermore
uin	HL15845
answer	answer is ministerial correction date of answer 04/06/2019 answer text <p>The Government remains focused on ensuring a smooth and orderly withdrawal from the EU with a deal as soon as possible.</p><p>In November 2018, the Government delivered on its commitment to provide appropriate analysis to Parliament with a robust, objective assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the economy of the UK across different EU exit scenarios. The no deal scenario is based on an assessment of the average trade barriers that a country trading on WTO terms faces. Whilst all economic modelling is inherently uncertain, the increase in trade barriers under the modelled no deal scenario is estimated to result in lower UK-EU trade volumes in the long run compared to today's arrangements; (1) UK imports from the EU are estimated to be between 34-43% lower and (2) UK exports to the EU are estimated to be between 30-40% lower.</p><p> </p> answering member printed Lord Callanan question first answered 04/06/2019 11:02:46 answering member 4336 label Biography information for Lord Callanan
tabling member	4559 label Biography information for Lord Livermore