|
answer text |
<p>(a) We estimate the cash, or face, value of ICR student loans to follow approximately
this profile going forwards.</p><p>Value of loan book in real terms</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>2014-15</p></td><td><p>2015-16</p></td><td><p>2016-17</p></td><td><p>2017-18</p></td><td><p>2018-19</p></td><td><p>2019-20</p></td><td><p>2020-21</p></td><td><p>2021-22</p></td><td><p>2022-23</p></td><td><p>2023-24</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£70bn</p></td><td><p>£80bn</p></td><td><p>£90bn</p></td><td><p>£100bn</p></td><td><p>£110bn</p></td><td><p>£120bn</p></td><td><p>£130bn</p></td><td><p>£140bn</p></td><td><p>£150bn</p></td><td><p>£160bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2024-25</p></td><td><p>2025-26</p></td><td><p>2026-27</p></td><td><p>2027-28</p></td><td><p>2028-29</p></td><td><p>2029-30</p></td><td><p>2030-31</p></td><td><p>2031-32</p></td><td><p>2032-33</p></td><td><p>2033-34</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£170bn</p></td><td><p>£180bn</p></td><td><p>£190bn</p></td><td><p>£200bn</p></td><td><p>£210bn</p></td><td><p>£220bn</p></td><td><p>£230bn</p></td><td><p>£240bn</p></td><td><p>£250bn</p></td><td><p>£260bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2034-35</p></td><td><p>2035-36</p></td><td><p>2036-37</p></td><td><p>2037-38</p></td><td><p>2038-39</p></td><td><p>2039-40</p></td><td><p>2040-41</p></td><td><p>2041-42</p></td><td><p>2042-43</p></td><td><p>2043-44</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£260bn</p></td><td><p>£270bn</p></td><td><p>£280bn</p></td><td><p>£280bn</p></td><td><p>£290bn</p></td><td><p>£300bn</p></td><td><p>£300bn</p></td><td><p>£310bn</p></td><td><p>£320bn</p></td><td><p>£320bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2044-45</p></td><td><p>2045-46</p></td><td><p>2046-47</p></td><td><p>2047-48</p></td><td><p>2048-49</p></td><td><p>2049-50</p></td><td><p>
</p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>£330bn</p></td><td><p>
</p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Value
of loan book in nominal terms</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>2014-15</p></td><td><p>2015-16</p></td><td><p>2016-17</p></td><td><p>2017-18</p></td><td><p>2018-19</p></td><td><p>2019-20</p></td><td><p>2020-21</p></td><td><p>2021-22</p></td><td><p>2022-23</p></td><td><p>2023-24</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£70bn</p></td><td><p>£80bn</p></td><td><p>£100bn</p></td><td><p>£110bn</p></td><td><p>£130bn</p></td><td><p>£150bn</p></td><td><p>£170bn</p></td><td><p>£190bn</p></td><td><p>£210bn</p></td><td><p>£230bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2024-25</p></td><td><p>2025-26</p></td><td><p>2026-27</p></td><td><p>2027-28</p></td><td><p>2028-29</p></td><td><p>2029-30</p></td><td><p>2030-31</p></td><td><p>2031-32</p></td><td><p>2032-33</p></td><td><p>2033-34</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£250bn</p></td><td><p>£270bn</p></td><td><p>£300bn</p></td><td><p>£320bn</p></td><td><p>£350bn</p></td><td><p>£380bn</p></td><td><p>£410bn</p></td><td><p>£440bn</p></td><td><p>£470bn</p></td><td><p>£500bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2034-35</p></td><td><p>2035-36</p></td><td><p>2036-37</p></td><td><p>2037-38</p></td><td><p>2038-39</p></td><td><p>2039-40</p></td><td><p>2040-41</p></td><td><p>2041-42</p></td><td><p>2042-43</p></td><td><p>2043-44</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£530bn</p></td><td><p>£570bn</p></td><td><p>£600bn</p></td><td><p>£640bn</p></td><td><p>£670bn</p></td><td><p>£710bn</p></td><td><p>£750bn</p></td><td><p>£790bn</p></td><td><p>£830bn</p></td><td><p>£870bn</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2044-45</p></td><td><p>2045-46</p></td><td><p>2046-47</p></td><td><p>2047-48</p></td><td><p>2048-49</p></td><td><p>2049-50</p></td><td><p>
</p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td></tr><tr><td><p>£920bn</p></td><td><p>£960bn</p></td><td><p>£1,000bn</p></td><td><p>£1,030bn</p></td><td><p>£1,070bn</p></td><td><p>£1,100bn</p></td><td><p>
</p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td><td><p> </p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>These
estimates assume that fees will increase in line with inflation from 2016 onwards.
These forecasts also take account of the freeing up of student number controls in
the Autumn Statement, increases in loan take-up rates, demographic changes over time
and updated earnings modelling.</p><p>(b) We estimate the current carrying value of
the student loan book, which is used in the BIS accounts. However, we do not forecast
the future carrying value of the loan book, as this is not required for the purposes
of accounting or budgeting. Our estimate of the carrying value for loans when they
are issued is based on the RAB charge, which we currently estimate is around 45%.</p>
|
|