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<p>Our prison population projections published in November last year, show that the
female prison population is projected to rise by around two-fifths by 2026 (1,300
women) with most of that rise coming in the next two years. Our projections took in
to consideration the impact of the planned recruitment of a further 23,400 police
officers – which is likely to increase charge volumes and future prison populations.</p><p>Our
projections further assumed the future gender composition of the prison population
will be broadly consistent with the pre-COVID 19 composition, although there is a
fair degree of uncertainty here however particularly due to the additional police
recruitment. As such we modelled a total of four scenarios which included a 20% higher/lower
throughput from the Police and a fast court recovery scenario. Table 2.1 and 4.1 taken
from our prison population projections, illustrate this below:</p><p>Table 2.1 below
shows the two extra scenarios of a lower and a higher impact police scenario for both
men and women.</p><p> </p><table><tbody><tr><td><p> </p></td><td><p><strong>Central
Scenario</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Lower Police Scenario</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Higher
Police Scenario</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Fast Court Recovery Scenario</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2020</p></td><td><p><strong>79,235</strong></p></td><td><p>79,235</p></td><td><p>79,235</p></td><td><p>79,235</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2021</p></td><td><p><strong>83,200</strong></p></td><td><p>83,000</p></td><td><p>83,500</p></td><td><p>85,900</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2022</p></td><td><p><strong>88,100</strong></p></td><td><p>87,200</p></td><td><p>89,100</p></td><td><p>88,600</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2023</p></td><td><p><strong>93,000</strong></p></td><td><p>91,300</p></td><td><p>94,700</p></td><td><p>91,900</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2024</p></td><td><p><strong>96,000</strong></p></td><td><p>93,800</p></td><td><p>98,300</p></td><td><p>94,900</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2025</p></td><td><p><strong>97,700</strong></p></td><td><p>95,000</p></td><td><p>100,300</p></td><td><p>97,000</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2026</p></td><td><p><strong>98,700</strong></p></td><td><p>95,900</p></td><td><p>101,600</p></td><td><p>98,400</p></td></tr><tr><td
colspan="5"><p>All figures are rounded to the nearest hundred. Components may not
sum due to rounding.</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>Table 4.1 below shows
the projections separately for children, females over 18 years and males over 18 specifically
for the central scenario.</p><p> </p><table><tbody><tr><td><p> </p></td><td><p><strong>Total</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Children</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Female
18+</strong></p></td><td><p><strong>Male 18+</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2020</p></td><td><p><strong>79,235</strong></p></td><td><p>395</p></td><td><p>3,217</p></td><td><p>75,623</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2021</p></td><td><p><strong>83,200</strong></p></td><td><p>600</p></td><td><p>3,800</p></td><td><p>78,900</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2022</p></td><td><p><strong>88,100</strong></p></td><td><p>600</p></td><td><p>4,100</p></td><td><p>83,500</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2023</p></td><td><p><strong>93,000</strong></p></td><td><p>700</p></td><td><p>4,300</p></td><td><p>88,100</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2024</p></td><td><p><strong>96,000</strong></p></td><td><p>700</p></td><td><p>4,400</p></td><td><p>90,900</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2025</p></td><td><p><strong>97,700</strong></p></td><td><p>700</p></td><td><p>4,500</p></td><td><p>92,500</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>September
2026</p></td><td><p><strong>98,700</strong></p></td><td><p>700</p></td><td><p>4,500</p></td><td><p>93,500</p></td></tr><tr><td
colspan="5"><p>All figures are rounded to the nearest hundred. Components may not
sum due to rounding.</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>Both tables are available
at <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2020-to-2026"
target="_blank">https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2020-to-2026</a></p><p>The
business case has not yet reached a position where it could be published. We intend
to continue dialogue with stakeholders as to how best to meet the needs of those women
sentenced to a custodial sentence</p>
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