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<p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific advice
to support the Government response to COVID-19. In fulfilling this role SAGE considers
a wide range of infectious disease modelling.</p><p>Part of this advice includes consensus
medium-term projections of hospitalisations and deaths produced by the Scientific
Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). These represent a scenario in which
the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow current trends. They do not account
for the impact of future policy or behaviour changes, nor seasonal effects that may
affect transmission.</p><p>The charts included in the medium-term projections explainer
show the consensus medium-term projections SPI-M’s operational sub-group have produced
for daily hospital admissions and deaths in England. These projections are plotted
on a log scale to better display the large range of values. As these charts show,
actual data from October consistently fitted the projections made earlier in the month.
These charts are published on GOV.UK.SPI-M does not estimate or project the number
of cases. Models are continually validated against outturn data.</p>
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